NFL WEEKLY PICK 'EM: WEEK 11

November 19, 2015

We break the lines for each game for Week 11 of the 2015 NFL season below and offer our predictions.

 

TENNESSEE (+3) at JACKSONVILLE

Everything is laid out perfectly for the Jaguars to make a statement on primetime. They are at home for the first time in a while vs. a rookie QB in brand-spanking new gold uniforms for the NFL's TNF Color Rush campaign. The Titans secondary consists of Coty Sensabaugh and Perrish Cox with Jason McCourty hitting IR this week, so this should be a huge game for the Allens. But then again, we said that last week vs. the Ravens. The curve ball to monitor is whether rookie sensation RB TJ Yeldon plays - he is listed as questionable with a foot injury and was seen in a walking boot earlier this week. Sen'Derrick Marks' torn triceps injury landing him on IR is a huge blow to a Jags rush defense that has been hot the past few weeks, but Tennessee can't run the ball to begin with. 

 

Oh, and don't forget the major storyline here - the return of Mike Mularkey in Duval. I'm sure he'll be well received after some of his comments earlier this week killing former GM Gene Smith (he wasn't wrong...)

 

JAGUARS 21 TITANS 17

 

OAKLAND (-2) at DETROIT

I was surprised to see the Raiders are only favored by 2 vs. the Lions, but I guess that's what winning at Lambeau for the first time in a quarter of a century does to Vegas. The Lions might have some new life to them, but Jack Del Rio's Raiders are hunting for a playoff spot, and although the loss of Aldon Smith to a one-year suspension hurts, they should still take care of business this week. Darius Slay has graded out as the best CB not named Josh Norman this year, so even though he may keep Amari Cooper in check, they still have this dude named Michael Crabtree.

 

RAIDERS 24 LIONS 20

 

INDIANAPOLIS (+6) at ATLANTA

It makes sense why the Colts would be 6 point underdogs to Atlanta with Andrew Luck being sidelined for the next few weeks, but this offense has actually been more consistent with Matt Hasselbeck at QB. The Colts and Chuck Pagano know they control their own destiny to win the AFC South, and this is going to be my upset pick of the week as they face an extremely up-and-down Falcons team. Vinatieri nails a 47 yarder in the dying embers to win.

 

COLTS 21 FALCONS 20

 

NY JETS (EVEN) at HOUSTON

Give me a break. Houston gets one result against a team that they legally own in the Bengals last week and now they are even vs. one of the best defenses in football? Oh- and TJ Yates is likely starting. FOH. JJ Watt may think he's going to turn the Bearded Scholar Ryan Fitzpatrick into the Peach Fuzz Remedial, but it's not going to happen. (I can't believe I wrote that, but I have to stoop to new lows to match JJ Watt's level of corny). Take the easy money. Buy yourself something nice.

 

JETS 27 TEXANS 6

 

TAMPA BAY (+6) at PHILADELPHIA

Sam Bradford is banged up this week and guess what? The Bucs are not a bad team. Jameis Winston continues to improve every week and there's a lot to get excited about, even with going on the road into a tough environment at Philly. The nice thing about playing the Eagles? The Bucs won't need to beat them because they'll find a way to beat themselves. Also, Gerald McCoy should RIP Matt Tobin this week, so there's that.

 

BUCCANEERS 31 EAGLES 27

 

DENVER (+1.5) at CHICAGO

Wow. If I told you three weeks ago that the Bears would be favored against the Broncos, you would call me a lunatic. This game is going to mean a lot to John Fox and Adam Gase, who are hosting the team that canned them despite consistently making the playoffs, so you can bet that the Bears players are going to be pumped up. Oh, and Jay Cutler has his own unfinished business vs. the Broncos. I actually think the Bears pull this one off, elite defense or not, and Brock Osweiler struggles in his first NFL start.

 

BEARS 13 BRONCOS 10

 

DALLAS (-1) at MIAMI

Tony Romo is back this week and he literally can't afford another single loss if the Cowboys are going to have a shot at making the playoffs. Sure, he'll be rusty, but a rusty Romo is still better than a sharp Cassel. Cowboys use the Dolphins to make a statement - We're back. Watch your ass, NFC East.

 

COWBOYS 31 DOLPHINS 24

 

WASHINGTON (+7.5) at CAROLINA

Every time I say an undefeated team is going to stay undefeated, they lose. That's not going to influence me making this pick, though. Although the Redskins have been sneaky overachievers this year, the Panthers defense should finally expose Kirk Cousins this week and Cam Newton will give the Skins D fits on the ground and through the air.

 

PANTHERS 23 REDSKINS 7

 

KANSAS CITY (-3) at SAN DIEGO

AFC West games are always hard to predict, but I think the Chargers are just too banged up to pull this one out. Rivers is running out of receiving options, and even if they were there, he doesn't have time to get the ball out with the Chargers porous offensive line. Not to mention they are matched up against Justin Houston and Tamba Hali this week and yeah, well, you get the idea.

 

CHIEFS 26 CHARGERS 14

 

GREEN BAY (EVEN) at MINNESOTA

Aaron Rodgers and the Pack can't lose four weeks in a row, right? RIGHT?

 

Wrong. This is without question the premier game of the week, and I predict whoever wins this battle will win the AFC North. Mike McCarthy really needs to consider taking play calling duties back, because it's not working. Adrian Peterson will also eclipse 100 yards after his scalding 203 yard performance last week. A last minute Blair Walsh field goal clinches the W for the Vikings, and Teddy hops on a motorcycle after the game holding a sign telling Rodgers to go #skol himself.

 

VIKINGS 24 PACKERS 21

 

SAN FRANCISCO (+13) at SEATTLE

Blaine Gabbert may have pirated a win vs. Dan Quinn and the Falcons, but boy is he in for a reality check vs. this Seahawks defensive unit. Although the Seahawks win, I do think the 49ers will find a way to cover. Tomsula has actually exceeded my own personal expectations considering the dumpster fire he has to work with.

 

SEAHAWKS 27 49ers 17

 

CINCINNATI (+5) at ARIZONA

This is a good game! Carson Palmer gets to take on his old team and take care of business. The Bengals are reeling from a bad loss on Monday Night Football this past week, and I'm afraid they are going to play frustrated, which is never good. The Bengals are going to get embarrassed on prime time television in consecutive weeks.

 

CARDINALS 35 BENGALS 21

 

BUFFALO (+7.5) at NEW ENGLAND

Ready for this? The Patriots undefeated season ends this week at the hands of Rex Ryan. The loss of Juian Edelman will not be all that easy to replace, even though Danny Amendola has not had a single drop with at least 40 targets this season. Tyrod Taylor is going to have to take care of business with his legs and might get banged up a little bit, but I think the Bills squeak this one out.

 

BILLS 31 PATRIOTS 30

 

All betting lines are from Bovada from ESPN.com.

 

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