NFL WEEKLY PICK 'EM: WEEK 7

October 20, 2016

We break the lines for each game for Week 7 of the 2016 NFL season below and offer our predictions.

 

CHICAGO (+8) at GREEN BAY

Sure, Aaron Rodgers is struggling, but this Bears team is simply not getting it done. I just can't see Green Bay dropping back-to-back home games at Lambeau. Expect a bounce back game from Rodgers & company, especially with Eddie Lacy going on IR.

 

BEARS 13 PACKERS 24

 

NEW YORK (-3) at LOS ANGELES

Another London game, and another market for Odell Beckham Jr. to showcase his wild antics. The Rams are not as good as their record indicates in my opinion, and expect the Giants pass rush (currently last in the NFL in sacks) to have a nice bounce back game against Greg Robinson and this bad Rams offensive line.

 

GIANTS 23 RAMS 13

 

NEW ORLEANS (+6.5) at KANSAS CITY

The Saints offense is getting on a roll, and I don't think the Chiefs have enough depth at CB after Marcus Peters to stop Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas. The Chiefs have only scored or allowed over 30 points in one game this season, so if this game does go into a shootout, my money's on Brees over Alex Smith every time.

 

SAINTS 30 CHIEFS 27

 

INDIANAPOLIS (+3) at TENNESSEE

Chuck Pagano's squad suffered an embarrassing 4th quarter meltdown on prime time last week against the Texans, and this team, now 0-2 in the division, can't afford another division loss this early in the season. The issue is the porous Colts run defense, which is a terrible matchup against the Titans strong exotic smash mouth rush attack led by Demarco Murray, and a red-hot Marcus Mariota who is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game over the last two weeks.

 

COLTS 20 TITANS 24

 

MINNESOTA (-3) at PHILADELPHIA

The Sam Bradford revenge game. On one hand you think the Vikings' chance of going to 6-0 with both starting tackles, running back and quarterback out for the season is slim-to-none, but on the other hand, Mike Zimmer just keeps finding a way to win. The bad news for them this week is that the Eagles are 4th in overall efficiency and have the top average scoring margin (+11.4 points) in the NFL this season.

 

VIKINGS 18 EAGLES 21

 

CLEVELAND (+10) at CINCINNATI

You just have to feel for Hue Jackson and the rash of injuries and lack of talent that is at his disposal in Cleveland. The Browns will post a couple wins this season, but I would be shocked if one of those come at the Bengals expense this week. The Bengals have their back against the wall at 2-4 and know they can't afford to drop a game like this if they want to keep their postseason chances afloat.

 

BROWNS 10 BENGALS 27

 

WASHINGTON (+1) at DETROIT

This is my toughest game to pick this week. The Lions offense is playing lights-out the last three weeks under Matt Stafford but will face a big test this week against Josh Norman and the Redskins defense. On the other side of the ball, Kirk Cousins tends to struggle on the road, even if it is against a pedestrian Lions defense averaging 25.5 points allowed per game.

 

REDSKINS 34 LIONS 35

 

OAKLAND (+1) at JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars are a tough match up for the Raiders on paper. Oakland has the 8th rated offense in the NFL vs. the Jaguars 9th rated defense and on the flip side the Jaguars have the 31st rated offense against the 32nd rated defense in Oakland. The difference for the win column will be the head coaching, where Jack Del Rio will be making his homecoming to Northern Florida to exact revenge on his former club that has struggled since his departure.

 

RAIDERS 31 JAGUARS 27

 

BUFFALO (-3) at MIAMI

With LeSean McCoy out for this game and the top Bills receiver being Robert Woods, I just don't see where the points are going to come from on offense for Buffalo this week, no matter how much confidence the defense is playing with right now. The Dolphins are rolling into this week with some momentum after a big win and a 204 yard performance by Jay Ajayi against the Steelers, so I'm going with them making it back-to-back wins.

 

BILLS 14 DOLPHINS 17

 

BALTIMORE (EVEN) at NEW YORK

The Jets are in a free fall right now and Geno Smith is now the pilot. I am actually confused why the line is even on this game.

 

RAVENS 25 JETS 7

 

TAMPA BAY (EVEN) at SAN FRANCISCO

I can totally see this being a game that Chip Kelly and the 49ers sneak away with, but that's not what's likely to happen. I am totally not impressed with the Bucs decision to bump Lovie Smith and roll with Dirk Koetter at Head Coach, but the roster has too much talent regardless for them not to come out of this game with a win. The 49ers have won four of the last five games in this series. 

 

BUCCANEERS 27 49ERS 17

 

SAN DIEGO (+6.5) at ATLANTA

Fun game on paper. We all know the proficiency of the Falcons offense, but did you know the Chargers have the 5th best rushing defense in the NFL allowing just 83.3 yards per game on the ground? I expect that to get even better with Joey Bosa now fully getting in his groove, which means it's going to be up to Matt Ryan's aerial attack and the Falcons defense to win this game. Fortunately for them, Matt Ryan is leading the NFL in passing yards. If this game was on the west coast, I'd flip the scores in the Chargers favor, but since it's in Georgia, #GoFalcons.

 

CHARGERS 31 FALCONS 38

 

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) at PITTSBURGH

Do you really need analysis here? The Steelers are starting Landry Jones on offense and are 30th in the NFL in pass rush production on defense. Against Tom Brady, that's a recipe for disaster.

 

PATRIOTS 35 STEELERS 10

 

SEATTLE (+2) at ARIZONA

Did you know the Seahawks have won three straight road games against the Cardinals outscoring them by 23.7 yards per game? I wouldn't expect another 100+ yard, 3 TD performance to all you David Johnson fantasy owners out there, and Carson Palmer hasn't shown he can win a game with his arm this year.

 

SEAHAWKS 20 CARDINALS 19

 

HOUSTON (+7.5) at DENVER

The Texans are the worst 4-2 team in the NFL, and I fully expect John Elway will have this defense amped up to prove that he made the right choice in letting Brock Osweiler skip town. Denver might have 7+ sacks in this game, and my body is ready for it.

 

TEXANS 11 BRONCOS 21

 

 

 

PICK 'EM RESULTS TRACKER

WEEK 1 - 8/16 (.500)

WEEK 2 - 7/16 (.438)

WEEK 3 - 5/16 (.313)

TOTAL - .417 AVG

 

All betting lines are from Bovada from ESPN.com.

 

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