INSIDE THE LINES: WEEK EIGHT

October 25, 2018

 

 

Inside the Lines is a weekly feature on ScouTurf.com where we outline the NFL spreads, provide a short snippet of match up insight, and give final score predictions. Last week, we crushed it by going 12-2 against the spread with a 55-51 record on the season.

 

All lines are from MyBookie as of the timestamp of this article. Please visit our disclaimer at the bottom of the page.

 

Miami Dolphins (+8) at Houston Texans

"Brocktober" resumes with Osweiler's most dramatic game yet in a revenge battle against the team that embarrassingly shipped him away with a second round pick to get rid of his albatross contract. I really want to pick Miami to cover the spread, but a banged up offensive line against Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt as well as an extremely hampered wide receiver unit (no Kenny Still or Albert Wilson) makes it hard to justify. Add in the fact that the Dolphins rushing defense is a bottom five unit against the run with being on the road and the odds are really stacked against the Dolphins this week.

Texans 23 Dolphins 13

 

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (UK)

Listening to Jaguars local radio this week, 1010XL beat reporter Hays Carlyon insisted that the Wembley home field advantage for the Jaguars is worth 13.5 points in and of itself. They may need it, since the offense has been shut out 57-0 in the first half over the las three weeks alone and Blake Bortles is walking on more egg shells than he ever has in his career after being benched for Cody Kessler last week. A late-week calf injury to starting cornerback A.J. Bouye also gives me pause, but the debut of Carlos Hyde and a return to a smash mouth running game may help. The Eagles are a good team, but they've had rotten luck losing close games this season. If I had to pick, I'm going to go with the the Eagles covering the 3.5 points, but wouldn't be surprised if the Jaguars end up winning. I'm not touching this game with my personal money, though.

Jaguars 20 Eagles 17

 

Cleveland Browns (+8) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I love that the spread is more than a touchdown this week because the Browns seemingly go into overtime in every game they play and it would be impossible for them to lose by more than a touchdown and extra point this week. AFC North divisional games are always close, and as good as the Steelers offense has looked especially coming off of a bye, I still think the Browns put up a fight. I'm going with the Browns covering the eight points.

Steelers 31 Browns 24

 

Denver Broncos (+10.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos must be feeling prett-ay prett-ay good after their 35 point dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals. Their reward? Going to Arrowhead to play the hottest offense in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and company. Outside of last week, the Broncos defense hasn't been too impressive outside of their edge rushers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, and the Chiefs defense seems to finally be waking up a little bit after a slow start. Let's go Chiefs.

Chiefs 35 Broncos 17

 

New York Jets (+8) at Chicago Bears

Sam Darnold looks like he might be starting to hit the rookie wall after throwing three interceptions last week against the Vikings, and this week he faces an equal NFC North defensive adversary in Khalil Mack and the Chicago Bears. Going on the road only compounds their troubles, and Trubisky seems to be gaining some understanding in Matt Nagy's offense.

Bears 24 Jets 13

 

Washington Redskins (-1.5) at New York Giants

HOT PLAY OF THE WEEK

Bet the mortgage on the Redskins. The Giants have thrown in the towel on their season and have started trading away key elements of their defense in shipping Eli Apple to the Saints and Snacks Harrison to the Lions. That means Michael Jordan, Kamrin Moore, or Grant Haley will be starting at cornerback opposite Janoris Jenkins. Who cares that this game is in New York - they could play on the moon and the Redskins still win this one.

Redskins 30 Giants 17

 

Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Detroit Lions

The Lions are a team that seem like they're really starting to buy in to head coach Matt Patricia and they get some additional help for their run defense in acquiring nose tackle Damon Harrison for a fifth round pick. I would have concern putting funds on this game if it were in Seattle, but with the Lions playing at home and their run game revving up with Kerryon Johnson, I'm going with the Lions.

Lions 24 Seahawks 20

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals got trounced on a national stage against the Chiefs last week and they get a chance to play the worst pass defense in the NFL at home this week to atone for their sins. The Bucs may have gotten more aggressive defensively by making the switch to Mark Duffner last week, but losing Kwon Alexander to an ACL tear hurts. Who's going to cover A.J. Green? Who's going to stop Joe Mixon? There's just too many questions right now on a sinking ship of Buccaneers.

Bengals 36 Bucs 28

 

Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Carolina Panthers

This is kind of a curious line to me. I would think the Panthers would be favored with the -2 line being at home, but looks like Vegas has other plans. Carolina's defense has been no slouch this year and should be a good match up against the Ravens' receivers with Donte Jackson covering John Brown's deep speed and James Bradberry masking Michael Crabtree's physicality. The Ravens defense has been exceptional this week and if the game was in Baltimore I'd go with the Ravens. I might even bet the under of this one, too (O/U 44).

Panthers 17 Ravens 14

 

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders

We put money on the Colts in our "Hot Play of the Week" last week and Andrew Luck did not disappoint against the Bills. Similar to the Giants write-up above, the Raiders have waved the white flag on their season and Gruden is fully focused on 2019 team re-building with this week's fire sale. It will be interesting to see how the players respond this week with grumblings about Gruden's management style so far this year.

Colts 21 Raiders 14

 

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals

I actually think the Cardinals get the upset this week playing at home in the desert, but it really depends on the health of Josh Rosen before I pull the trigger on placing the bet. They've had a few extra days to prepare having played on Thursday Nigh Football last week and the offense should look much better now with Bruce Arians protege Byron Leftwich pulling the strings. David Johnson fantasy owners - rejoice!

Cardinals 23 49ers 20

 

Green Bay Packers (+9) at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are damn good, but they aren't going undefeated this year. While that first loss may not come this week (they have the Chiefs coming up on national television), +9 against Aaron Rodgers is very ambitious by the bookmakers. The Packers should be getting Randall Cobb back this week on offense, and they've invested in the defensive backs to mitigate the impact of a Rams receiving unit that is down one Cooper Kupp. 

Rams 27 Packers 24

 

New Orleans Saints (EVEN) at Minnesota Vikings

Classic premier offense vs. premier defense pick 'em game. We went with the Saints -2.5 last week and Justin Tucker's missed PAT screwed that all the way up. The Saints are a slightly better team to me at the moment, but the Vikings have the benefit of playing at home. I'm going to give you a score, but avoid placing on this game if you can.

Saints 28 Vikings 27

 

New England Patriots (-14.5) at Buffalo Bills

Tom Brady has owned the Bills throughout his career and no one is debating this will be an easy win for the Pats. But 14.5 points is a lot in the NFL, even if it is against the two-headed Nathan Peterman/Derek Anderson monster. Bill Belichick has not been known to be a guy to let his foot off the pedal in the past, even if he ends up going up quickly. Screw, it. Let's do it. 

Patriots 35 Bills 13

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